August 19, 2022
Financial markets remained turbulent throughout the second quarter of 2022, as inflationary pressures (the highest in 40 years) and the prospect for more aggressive interest rate hikes continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Monetary policymakers aggressively stepped up their tightening measures in an attempt to prevent inflation (thought of as “transitory” just six months earlier) […]
May 20, 2022
Both bond and stock markets started 2022 poorly, as investors began pricing in aggressive interest rate hikes in the face of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. As highlighted in previous commentaries, these trends were firmly in place towards the end of last year, but the military conflict in Europe has intensified price pressures and […]
February 15, 2022
The global economic recovery continued in the fourth quarter of 2021, but at a slower pace and with emerging distinctions between industries. Notably, energy prices continued to push higher, extending the energy sector’s winning streak and putting those in the “inflation is transitory” camp – not to mention managers of fossil fuel free funds – […]
November 8, 2021
China dominated the capital market news cycle in September, sending markets sharply lower following two months of strong gains. Default risk – with global implications – surfaced at Evergrande, China’s second largest real estate company. The ruling Communist party also cracked down on cryptocurrency use, and, more broadly, businesses and capital market activity via sweeping […]
August 10, 2021
The pervasive capital market chatter thus far in 2021 has centered on inflation. The debate is not whether inflation exists – it certainly does – but rather the expected duration of these official 3% to 4% annualized Consumer Price Index prints. “Transitory” is the buzz word for one camp, whereas others see rising prices as […]
May 12, 2021
In his 2004 book, The Misbehavior of Markets, mathematician and inventor of fractal geometry Benoit Mandelbrot succinctly illustrates how market crashes happen more frequently than modern portfolio theory would suggest. We expect volatility from the equity market, but some of the precipitous declines experienced by investors over the past three decades are just not supposed […]
February 11, 2021
The fourth quarter of 2020 marked the reemergence of the equity bulls, as stock markets around the world accelerated to the upside starting in November. The timing was coincident with the announcement and expected rollout of several highly effective vaccine treatments for COVID-19, as well as renewed lockdowns and restrictions across many regions. Significant macroeconomic […]
October 29, 2020
In the third quarter, economic activity bounced back forcefully from the record-breaking economic contractions the quarter earlier. Equity markets rallied alongside the improved economic data before correcting in September, as it became evident that governments globally were once again considering shutting down economies to combat the spread of COVID-19. Economic output remains far below that […]
August 12, 2020
Asset markets continued their-V-shaped bounce off the March lows, with many equity markets nearly recovering to all-time highs by the end of June. This continues to be in stark contrast to economic activity, which is still undeniably weak and recovering much more slowly in the face of on-again, off-again lockdowns and general COVID-19 fears. In […]
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Market Commentary – Third Quarter 2022
November 21, 2022
At the start of the third quarter, there was widespread optimism that inflation had peaked and that slowing economic activity would allow monetary policymakers to limit further tightening and perhaps pivot toward lower interest rates sooner than expected. This sparked a rally across asset classes into late August, at which point U.S. Federal Reserve Chair […]